Content of the reportBMI View: Botswana remains as one of the more advanced countries in the African region in terms of its
provision of healthcare. However, the region as a whole remains impoverished and it is unlikely that we will
see significant foreign investments. Consequently, we maintain our view that the country must see
significant improvements to its living standards before it can attract pharmaceutical and healthcare firms.
Headline Expenditure Projections:
Pharmaceuticals: BWP1.50bn (US$198mn) in 2012 to BWP1.65bn (US$198mn) in 2013; +9.7% in local
currency terms and +0.1% in US dollar terms. Forecast in line with Q312.
Healthcare: BWP6.72bn (US$883mn) in 2012 to BWP7.48bn (US$896mn) in 2013; +11.2% in local
currency terms and +1.4% in US dollar terms, due to currency fluctuations. Forecast unchanged from
Table of ContentsBMI Industry View 7
Business Environment 11
Industry Forecast 12
Pharmaceutical Market Forecast . 12
Table: Pharmaceutical Sales Indicators, 2009-2017 . . 13
Healthcare Market Forecast . 14
Table: HIV Prevalence In Sub-Saharan Africa (2011) 15
Table: Healthcare Expenditure Indicators, 2009-2017 17
Table: Healthcare Governmental Indicators, 2009-2017 . 17
Table: Healthcare Private Indicators, 2009-2017 . . 18
Macroeconomic Forecasts 20
Economic Analysis 20
Industry Risk/Reward Ratings 25
Middle East And Africa Risk/Reward Ratings 25
Botswana Risk/Reward Ratings 33
Risks . 34
Market Overview 35
Table: Overall Market Size Is Small But Individual Expenditure Is Relatively High 35
Regulatory Development 38
Intellectual Property Issues . 38
Research & Development 41
Company Profile . 43
Gemi Pharmacure 43
Demographic Forecast 45
Botswana Demographic Outlook . 45
Table: Botswana's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000) . . 46
Table: Botswana's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total) . . 46
Table: Botswana's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020 47
Table: Botswana's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020 . . 48
Methodology . 51
Pharmaceutical Expenditure Forecast Model . 51
Healthcare Expenditure Forecast Model 51
Notes On Methodology . 52
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