AstraZeneca plc: PharmaVitae Profile

This analysis examines the historical and forecast performance for AstraZeneca in the ethical pharmaceutical sector. The profile encompasses global company strategy, portfolio and pipeline analysis and assessment of financial performance, with 1-6 year sales forecasts for key drugs. An interactive forecasting and analysis tool provides continually updated quantitative and qualitative information.

Report Highlights

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CHAPTER 1 ABOUT THIS PROFILE 2
Executive summary 2
Quarterly news update 2
Company introduction 2
Company sales 2
Company financials 2
Key products and competitors 3
Appendix 3
Data sourcing 3
Sales data 3
Analyst consensus 3
CHAPTER 2 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 4
Key findings 4
Prescription pharmaceutical sales performance, 2001-13 5
Financial performance, 2001-13 6
J&J: PharmaVitae forecasts at a glance 7
Strategic insight 8
Managing the boom & bust of 'blockbuster' drugs 8
US small molecule drug sales increase generic exposure 8
Lifecycle management will minimize loss from key products 9
Despite challenges, J&J's outlook appears robust 10
Performance to 2013 will be clear by 2010 10
Diversified business balances risk 11
Wide range of strategic options to seek growth 12
SWOT analysis 15
Strengths 15
Weaknesses 16
Opportunities 17
Threats 18
CHAPTER 3 QUARTERLY NEWS UPDATE 23
Product developments 23
Deals and alliances 24
Product deals 24
Technology deals 25
M&A activity 25
Company announcements 25
Future product milestones 26
CHAPTER 4 COMPANY INTRODUCTION 28
Key findings 28
Company overview 29
Company history 29
Company structure 30
M&A history 31
M&A strategy 33
CHAPTER 5 COMPANY SALES 34
Key findings 34
Prescription pharmaceutical sales and growth rate analysis, 2001-13 35
Product analysis 37
Product analysis, 2001-07 37
Product analysis, 2007-13 40
Therapy area analysis 44
Therapy area analysis, 2001-07 45
Therapy area analysis, 2007-13 47
Therapy area focus, 2001-13 50
Geographic analysis 52
Geographic analysis, 2001-07 53
Geographic analysis, 2007-13 55
Geographic focus, 2001-13 57
Launch/core/expiry analysis 59
Explanation of launch/core/expiry analysis 59
Launch analysis, 2007-13 60
Core analysis, 2007-13 61
Expiry analysis, 2007-13 62
Launch/core/expiry configuration, 2007-13 64
Molecule type analysis 66
Molecule type analysis, 2001-07 67
Molecule type analysis, 2007-13 68
Externalization analysis 71
Externalization analysis, 2001-07 72
Externalization analysis, 2007-13 73
CHAPTER 6 COMPANY FINANCIALS 77
Key findings 77
Reconciliation between PharmaVitae-formatted prescription pharma sales and company-reported total sales, 2001-07 78
Financial statements, 2001-07 79
Profit and loss account, 2001-07 79
Balance sheet, 2001-07 82
Operating costs and profit analysis 84
Operating costs and profit analysis, 2001-07 86
Operating cost ratio and profit margin analysis, 2001-07 87
Operating cost ratio and profit margin analysis, 2007-13 89
Operating costs and profit analysis, 2007-13 92
Return on capital employed analysis 94
Capital employed analysis, 2001-07 95
Return on capital employed (RoCE) analysis, 2001-07 97
Market capitalization analysis 101
Market capitalization analysis, 2001-07 101
Total shareholder returns (TSR) analysis, 2001-07 104
CHAPTER 7 KEY PRODUCTS AND COMPETITORS 106
Key findings 106
Overview 107
Product profiles 108
Risperdal franchise 108
Overview 108
Sales forecast 109
Success driven by first to market and favorable side effect profile 109
US generics hit Risperdal sales from H2 2008 111
Additional products aimed at retaining patients within JNJ's portfolio 111
Invega franchise 113
Overview 113
Sales forecast 114
Switching before launch of generic Risperdal is critical 114
Paliperidone palmitate will build upon Risperdal Consta's success 116
Remicade 117
Overview 117
Sales forecast 118
J&J markets Remicade in the US only 118
Humira has slowed growth of Remicade sales 118
New launches will maintain the growth of J&J's I&I franchise 119
Procrit/ Eprex 121
Overview 121
Sales forecast 122
Decline as market share lost to Aranesp from 2002 122
Safety concerns have hit the wider ESA market 122
Further competition limited to ex-US markets for now 123
Topamax 124
Overview 124
Sales forecast 125
Generics set to erode key US market across 2008-09 125
Sales growth has been supported by use in further indications 125
Rivaroxaban 127
Overview 127
Sales forecast 128
US launch forecast in 2009 128
Set to revolutionize anticoagulant management 128
Attractive product profile ensures market success 129
Velcade 130
Overview 130
Sales forecast 131
Growth driven by label expansion 131
Takeda prevented J&J from acquiring Millennium 132
Prezista 133
Overview 133
Sales forecast 134
Growth strengthened by earlier use 134
Close fit with additional HIV products 135
CHAPTER 8 APPENDIX 136
R&D pipeline 136
References 137
Abbreviations 137
Historical growth rate analysis 138
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Table 1: AstraZeneca - PharmaVitae forecasts at a glance 9
Table 2: AstraZeneca key product developments, Q1 2008 31
Table 3: AstraZeneca product deals and alliances, Q1 2008 32
Table 4: AstraZeneca technology deals and alliances, Q1 2008 33
Table 5: AstraZeneca M&A activity, 2008 34
Table 6: AstraZeneca company announcements, Q1 2008 35
Table 7: AstraZeneca future product milestones, 2008-10 37
Table 8: AstraZeneca product portfolio overview ($m), 2001-07 53
Table 9: AstraZeneca product portfolio overview ($m), 2007-13 56
Table 10: AstraZeneca therapy portfolio overview ($m), 2001-07 62
Table 11: AstraZeneca therapy portfolio overview ($m), 2007-13 65
Table 12: AstraZeneca portfolio overview by geographic region ($m), 2001-07 72
Table 13: AstraZeneca portfolio overview by geographic region ($m), 2007-13 73
Table 14: AstraZeneca launch portfolio overview ($m), 2007-13 77
Table 15: AstraZeneca core portfolio overview ($m), 2007-13 79
Table 16: AstraZeneca expiry portfolio overview ($m), 2007-13 80
Table 17: AstraZeneca portfolio overview by molecule type ($m), 2001-07 85
Table 18: AstraZeneca product portfolio overview by molecule type ($m), 2007-13 86
Table 19: AstraZeneca product portfolio overview by source ($m), 2001-07 91
Table 20: AstraZeneca product portfolio overview by source ($m), 2007-13 93
Table 21: Total AstraZeneca sales by business unit ($m), 2001-07 98
Table 22: AstraZeneca profit and loss account ($m), 2001-07 100
Table 23: AstraZeneca balance sheet ($m), 2001-07 104
Table 24: AstraZeneca operating revenue/cost analysis ($m), 2001-07 108
Table 25: AstraZeneca operating cost ratio analysis (% of total revenues), 2001-07 109
Table 26: AstraZeneca operating cost ratio analysis (% of total revenues), 2007-13 111
Table 27: AstraZeneca operating revenue/cost analysis ($m), 2007-13 114
Table 28: HPV vaccine royalty payments to AstraZeneca, 2007-13 ($m) 115
Table 29: AstraZeneca capital employed ($m), 2001-07 118
Table 30: AstraZeneca EBIT return on capital employed ($m), 2001-07 120
Table 31: AstraZeneca EBIT pre-tax return/Capital employed driver analysis ($m), 2001-07 121
Table 32: AZN market capitalization ($ billion), 2001-07 123
Table 33: AZN total shareholder returns (annual %), 2001-07 126
Table 34: Key products overview 129
Table 35: Crestor: overview 130
Table 36: Crestor: sales forecast ($m), 2007-13 131
Table 37: Betaloc: overview 134
Table 38: Betaloc: sales forecast ($m), 2007-13 135
Table 39: Nexium: overview 137
Table 40: Nexium: sales forecast ($m), 2007-13 138
Table 41: Prilosec/Losec: overview 141
Table 42: Prilosec/Losec: sales forecast ($m), 2007-13 142
Table 43: Arimidex: overview 144
Table 44: Arimidex: sales forecast ($m), 2007-13 145
Table 45: Recentin: overview 147
Table 46: Recentin: sales forecast ($m), 2007-13 148
Table 47: Seroquel: overview 151
Table 48: Seroquel: sales forecast ($m), 2007-13 152
Table 49: Symbicort: overview 154
Table 50: Symbicort: sales forecast ($m), 2007-13 155
Table 51: Synagis: overview 159
Table 52: Synagis: sales forecast ($m), 2007-13 160
Table 53: Numax: overview 161
Table 54: Numax: sales forecast ($m), 2007-13 162
Table 55: AstraZeneca R&D pipeline (Phase I-Phase III) 164
Figure 1: AstraZeneca prescription pharmaceutical performance, sales ($m) and growth rate (%), 2001-13 6
Figure 2: AstraZeneca financial performance ($m), 2001-13 8
Figure 3: AstraZeneca's blockbuster portfolio sales growth ($m), 2001-13 11
Figure 4: AstraZeneca revenues by molecule type ($m), 2001-13 15
Figure 5: AstraZeneca/MedImmune revenues ($m), 2001-13 16
Figure 6: AstraZeneca SWOT analysis 20
Figure 7: M&A/divestment history AstraZeneca 41
Figure 8: AstraZeneca prescription pharmaceutical performance, sales ($m) and growth rate (%), 2001-13 51
Figure 9: AstraZeneca key sales growth driver & resistors ($m), 2001-07 54
Figure 10: AstraZeneca key sales growth drivers & resistors ($m), 2007-13 57
Figure 11: AstraZeneca prescription pharmaceutical sales by therapy area ($m), 2001-13 61
Figure 12: AstraZeneca prescription pharma sales by therapy area (% of total), 2001-13 69
Figure 13: AstraZeneca prescription pharmaceutical sales by geographic region ($m), 2001-13 71
Figure 14: AstraZeneca drivers and resistors by geographic region ($m), 2001-07 72
Figure 15: AstraZeneca drivers and resistors by geographic region ($m), 2007-13 74
Figure 16: AstraZeneca prescription pharmaceutical sales by geographic region (% of total), 2001-13 75
Figure 17: AstraZeneca launch/core/expiry configuration ($m), 2007-13 82
Figure 18: AstraZeneca prescription pharmaceutical sales by molecule type ($m), 2001-13 84
Figure 19: AstraZeneca growth drivers & resistors by molecule type ($m), 2007-13 87
Figure 20: AstraZeneca prescription pharmaceutical sales by source ($m), 2001-13 90
Figure 21: AstraZeneca growth drivers & resistors by source ($m), 2001-07 91
Figure 22: AstraZeneca growth drivers & resistors by source ($m), 2007-13 94
Figure 23: AstraZeneca operating revenue/cost analysis ($m), 2001-13 107
Figure 24: AstraZeneca operating cost ratio analysis (% of total revenues), 2001-13 113
Figure 25: AstraZeneca return on capital employed, EBIT margin and capital turnover, 2001-07 117
Figure 26: Return on capital employed formula 121
Figure 27: AstraZeneca market capitalization ($m), 2001-07 124
Figure 28: AstraZeneca total shareholder returns ($m), 2001-07 127
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