Bayer Schering Pharma AG: PharmaVitae Profile

This analysis examines the historical and forecast performance for Bayer Schering Pharma in the ethical pharma sector. The profile encompasses global company strategy, portfolio and pipeline analysis and assessment of financial performance, with 1-6 year sales forecasts for key drugs. An interactive forecasting and analysis tool provides continually updated quantitative and qualitative information

Report Highlights

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CHAPTER 1 ABOUT THIS PROFILE 2
Executive summary 2
Quarterly news update 2
Company introduction 2
Company sales 2
Company financials 2
Key products and competitors 3
Appendix 3
Data sourcing 3
Sales data 3
Analyst consensus 3
CHAPTER 2 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 4
Key findings 4
Prescription pharmaceutical sales performance, 2001-13 5
Financial performance, 2001-13 6
Bayer AG: PharmaVitae forecasts at a glance 8
Strategic insight 9
Evolution towards a greater Rx pharma focus 9
1) 2001-04: Rx pharma performance collapses due to Baycol withdrawal and Ciprobay sales decline 10
Blockbuster Baycol is withdrawn from the market 10
Blockbuster Ciprobay suffers genericization 10
2) 2004-07: Corporate restructuring 11
2004: Divestment of Lanxess AG 11
2006-07: Acquisition of Schering AG 11
2007: Divestment of MaterialScience subsidiaries 12
3) 2007-13: Bayer portfolio drives forecast sales growth and cost savings are implemented 12
Cost cutting initiatives to increase operating profit 12
Bayer's Rx portfolio drives growth 13
A new era for Bayer Schering Pharma 14
SWOT analysis 16
Strengths 16
Weaknesses 17
Opportunities 19
Threats 21
CHAPTER 3 QUARTERLY NEWS UPDATE 25
Quarterly sales update, Q408 25
Product developments 27
Deals and alliances 29
Product deals 29
Technology deals 31
M&A activity 33
Company announcements 34
Future product milestones 35
CHAPTER 4 COMPANY INTRODUCTION 36
Key findings 36
Company overview 37
Company history 37
Current corporate structure 38
Bayer HealthCare 38
Bayer MaterialScience 39
Bayer CropScience 39
M&A history 40
Acquisition of Roche Consumer Health AG (RCH) 40
Lanxess AG Spin-off 41
Divestment of US Plasma Products 41
Acquisition of Schering AG 41
Recent M&A promotes Bayer's healthcare focus 42
Divestment of Diagnostics Division 42
Divestment of HC Starck and Wolff Walsrode 42
Acquisition of Possis Medical and Sagmel Inc 43
M&A strategy 43
CHAPTER 5 COMPANY SALES ANALYSIS 45
Key findings 45
Prescription pharmaceutical sales and growth rate analysis, 2001-13 46
Product analysis 49
Product analysis, 2001-07 49
Product analysis, 2007-13 52
Therapy area analysis 56
Therapy area analysis, 2001-07 57
Therapy area analysis, 2007-13 60
Therapy area focus, 2001-13 63
Geographic analysis 65
Geographic analysis, 2001-07 66
Geographic analysis, 2007-13 68
Geographic focus, 2001-13 70
Launch/core/expiry analysis 72
Explanation of launch/core/expiry analysis 72
Launch analysis, 2007-13 73
Core analysis, 2007-13 75
Expiry analysis, 2007-13 77
Launch/core/expiry configuration, 2007-13 80
Molecule type analysis 82
Molecule type analysis, 2001-07 83
Molecule type analysis, 2007-13 85
Externalization analysis 88
Externalization analysis, 2001-07 89
Externalization analysis, 2007-13 91
CHAPTER 6 COMPANY FINANCIALS 94
Key findings 94
Reconciliation between PharmaVitae-formatted prescription pharma revenue and Bayer AG-reported total revenue, 2001-07 95
Financial statements, 2001-07 97
Profit and loss account, 2001-07 97
Balance sheet, 2001-07 100
Operating costs and profit analysis 102
Operating costs and profit analysis, 2001-07 103
Operating cost ratio and profit margin analysis, 2001-07 105
Operating cost ratio and profit margin analysis, 2007-13 107
Operating cost ratio and profit margin analysis, 2001-13 109
Operating costs and profit analysis, 2007-13 111
Return on capital employed analysis 113
Capital employed analysis, 2001-07 114
Return on capital employed (RoCE) analysis, 2001-07 116
Market capitalization analysis 120
Market capitalization analysis, 2001-07 120
Total shareholder returns (TSR) analysis, 2001-07 122
CHAPTER 7 KEY PRODUCTS AND COMPETITORS 124
Key findings 124
Overview 125
Hematology 126
Kogenate 126
Overview 126
Sales forecast 127
PEGylated formulation set to drive sales from 2011 127
Delivery device is key contributor to growth of Kogenate franchise 128
Growth of hemophilia market will continue to drive Kogenate sales growth 128
Key competitors 128
Patent challenge 129
Xarelto 130
Overview 130
Sales forecast 131
A replacement for Warfarin? 131
Pradaxa expected to take first-to-market advantage 132
Positive Phase III trial data buoys sales hopes 132
Oncology 133
Nexavar 133
Overview 133
Sales forecast 134
Nexavar encounters strong competition in the RCC market 134
HCC market to offer better sales potential 135
Further indication broadening will boost sales growth 135
Leukine 136
Overview 136
Sales forecast 137
Ongoing development to expand Leukine's range of indications 137
Leukine sales limited to the competitive US market 137
Safety concerns 138
Central nervous system 139
Betaferon 139
Overview 139
Sales forecast 140
Betaferon: a success story despite initial challenges 140
Novartis agreement 141
Key competitors 141
The Tysabri withdrawal 142
Urology and gender-specific health 144
Mirena 144
Overview 144
Sales forecast 145
An alternative to sterilization 145
Launch in the Japanese market 145
Key competitors 146
Levitra 148
Overview 148
Sales forecast 149
Key competitors 149
PDE-5 safety concerns 150
Levitra licensing agreements 150
Yasmin 151
Overview 151
Sales forecast 152
Yasmin: a historical growth driver 152
Yasmin patent invalidated following challenge from Barr Pharmaceuticals 152
The impact of generics 153
Key competitors 154
Yaz 155
Overview 155
Sales forecast 156
The Impact of Yasmin's invalidated patent protection 156
New market launches 157
Key competitors 157
The switch from Yasmin to Yaz 158
Infectious disease 159
Avelox 159
Overview 159
Sales forecast 160
Antibiotics market encounters growing patient resistance 160
Key competitors 161
Avelox in a good position despite increasing genericization 161
Avelox patent challenge: generic moxifloxacin not expected by 2013 162
Ciprobay 163
Overview 163
Sales forecast 164
Rapid genericization in forecast period 164
A key historical growth driver 164
The problem of resistance 165
Life cycle management 165
Cardiovascular 166
Adalat 166
Overview 166
Sales forecast 167
Extended release formulation rejuvenates brand 167
The impact of genericization 168
Rise of the ARB class 168
Endocrinology and other metabolic disorders 170
Glucobay 170
Overview 170
Sales forecast 171
The poor performance of the AGI class 171
Key competitors 172
CHAPTER 8 APPENDIX 174
R&D pipeline 174
New molecular entity pipeline 174
Indication broadening pipeline 175
References 176
Abbreviations 177
Exchange rates 178
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Table 1: Bayer AG- PharmaVitae forecasts at a glance 8
Table 2: Bayer Schering Pharma quarterly global sales update ($m), Q4 2008 25
Table 3: Bayer Schering Pharma AG key product developments, 2008 27
Table 4: Bayer Schering Pharma AG product deals and alliances, 2008 29
Table 5: Bayer Schering Pharma AG technology deals and alliances, 2008 31
Table 6: Bayer HealthCare M&A activity, 2008 33
Table 7: Bayer AG company announcements, 2008 34
Table 8: Bayer Schering Pharma future product milestones 35
Table 9: Bayer Schering Pharma product portfolio overview, sales ($m), 2001-07 49
Table 10: Bayer Schering Pharma product portfolio overview, global sales ($m), 2007-13 52
Table 11: Bayer Schering Pharma therapy portfolio overview, sales ($m), 2001-07 57
Table 12: Bayer Schering Pharma therapy portfolio overview, sales ($m), 2007-13 60
Table 13: Bayer Schering Pharma portfolio overview by geographic region, sales ($m), 2001-07 66
Table 14: Bayer Schering Pharma portfolio overview by geographic region, sales ($m), 2007-13 68
Table 15: Bayer Schering Pharma launch portfolio overview ($m), 2007-13 73
Table 16: Bayer Schering Pharma core portfolio overview ($m), 2007-13 75
Table 17: Bayer Schering Pharma expiry portfolio overview ($m), 2007-13 77
Table 18: Bayer Schering Pharma portfolio overview by molecule type ($m), 2001-07 83
Table 19: Bayer Schering Pharma product portfolio overview by molecule type ($m), 2007-13 85
Table 20: Bayer Schering Pharma product portfolio overview by source ($m), 2001-07 89
Table 21: Bayer Schering Pharma AG product portfolio overview by source ($m), 2007-13 91
Table 22: Total Bayer AG revenue by business unit ($m), 2001-07 95
Table 23: Bayer AG profit and loss account ($m), 2001-07 97
Table 24: Bayer AG balance sheet ($m), 2001-07 100
Table 25: Bayer AG operating revenue/cost analysis ($m), 2001-07 103
Table 26: Bayer AG operating cost ratio analysis (% of total revenue), 2001-07 105
Table 27: Bayer AG operating cost ratio analysis (% of total revenue), 2007-13 107
Table 28: Bayer AG operating revenue/cost analysis ($m), 2007-13 111
Table 29: Bayer AG capital employed ($m), 2001-07 114
Table 30: Bayer AG EBIT return on capital employed ($m), 2001-07 116
Table 31: Bayer AG EBIT pre-tax return/Capital employed driver analysis ($m), 2001-07 117
Table 32: Bayer AG market capitalization ($ billion), 2001-07 120
Table 33: Bayer AG total shareholder returns, 2001-07 (annual %) 122
Table 34: Bayer Schering Pharma: Key products overview 125
Table 35: Kogenate: overview 126
Table 36: Kogenate: sales forecast ($m), 2007-13 127
Table 37: Xarelto: overview 130
Table 38: Xarelto: sales forecast ($m), 2007-13 131
Table 39: Nexavar: overview 133
Table 40: Nexavar: sales forecast ($m), 2007-13 134
Table 41: Leukine: overview 136
Table 42: Leukine: sales forecast ($m), 2007-13 137
Table 43: Betaferon: overview 139
Table 44: Betaferon: sales forecast ($m), 2007-13 140
Table 45: Mirena: overview 144
Table 46: Mirena: sales forecast ($m), 2007-13 145
Table 47: Key players in the oral contraceptives market, 2001-13 146
Table 48: Levitra: overview 148
Table 49: Levitra: sales forecast ($m), 2007-13 149
Table 50: Yasmin: overview 151
Table 51: Yasmin: sales forecast ($m), 2007-13 152
Table 52: Yaz: overview 155
Table 53: Yaz: sales forecast ($m), 2007-13 156
Table 54: Avelox: overview 159
Table 55: Avelox: sales forecast ($m), 2007-13 160
Table 56: Key players in the antibiotics market, 2007 161
Table 57: Ciprobay: overview 163
Table 58: Ciprobay: sales forecast ($m), 2007-13 164
Table 59: Adalat: overview 166
Table 60: Adalat: sales forecast ($m), 2007-13 167
Table 61: Glucobay: overview 170
Table 62: Glucobay: sales forecast ($m), 2007-13 171
Table 63: Bayer Schering Pharma AG's NME pipeline (Phase I-registration) 174
Table 64: Bayer Schering Pharma AG's indication broadening pipeline (Phase I-registration) 175
Table 65: Exchange rates, 2007 178
Figure 1: Bayer AG prescription pharmaceutical performance, sales ($m) and growth rate (%), 2001-13 5
Figure 2: Bayer AG financial performance ($m), 2001-13 7
Figure 3: Bayer AG corporate development, 2001-13 9
Figure 4: Bayer Schering Pharma prescription pharmaceutical sales by source ($m), 2007-13 13
Figure 5: Bayer Schering Pharma prescription pharmaceutical sales by therapy area ($m), 2001-13 14
Figure 6: Bayer Schering Pharma SWOT analysis 16
Figure 7: Top 10 product sales ($m), forecast vs. actual, 2008 26
Figure 8: Current corporate structure 38
Figure 9: M&A/divestment history Bayer AG 40
Figure 10: Bayer Schering Pharma prescription pharmaceutical performance, sales ($m) and growth rate (%), 2001-13 46
Figure 11: Bayer Schering Pharma key sales growth drivers and resistors ($m), 2001-07 50
Figure 12: Bayer Schering Pharma key sales growth drivers and resistors ($m), 2007-13 53
Figure 13: Bayer Schering Pharma prescription pharmaceutical sales by therapy area ($m), 2001-13 56
Figure 14: Bayer Schering Pharma prescription pharma sales by therapy area, (% of total), 2001-13 63
Figure 15: Bayer Schering Pharma prescription pharmaceutical sales by geographic region ($m), 2001-13 65
Figure 16: Bayer Schering Pharma drivers and resistors by geographic region, sales ($m), 2001-07 66
Figure 17: Bayer Schering Pharma drivers and resistors by geographic region, sales ($m), 2007-13 68
Figure 18: Bayer Schering Pharma prescription pharmaceutical sales by geographic region (% of total), 2001-13 70
Figure 19: Bayer Schering Pharma launch/core/expiry configuration ($m), 2007-13 80
Figure 20: Bayer Schering Pharma prescription pharmaceutical sales by molecule type ($m), 2001-13 82
Figure 21: Bayer Schering Pharma growth drivers & resistors by molecule type ($m), 2007-13 86
Figure 22: Bayer Schering Pharma prescription pharmaceutical sales by source ($m), 2001-13 88
Figure 23: Bayer Schering Pharma growth drivers & resistors by source ($m), 2001-07 89
Figure 24: Bayer Schering Pharma growth drivers & resistors by source ($m), 2007-13 92
Figure 25: Bayer AG operating revenue/cost analysis ($m), 2001-13 102
Figure 26: Bayer AG operating cost ratio analysis (% of total revenue), 2001-13 109
Figure 27: Bayer AG return on capital employed, EBIT margin and capital turnover, 2001-07 113
Figure 28: Return on capital employed formula 118
Figure 29: Bayer AG market capitalization ($ billion), 2001-07 121
Figure 30: Bayer AG total shareholder returns (annual %), 2001-07 122
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