Commercial Insight: Targeted Therapy Cancer Brands - High growth market will see eight new blockbusters by 2017

Targeted therapies are the top selling class of cancer drug, reaching sales of nearly $15 billion in the seven major pharmaceutical markets in 2007. The high growth of this therapy class makes it attractive to drug developers, resulting in 10 new entrants to the market since 2005. More drugs are likely to gain approval in the near future, contributing to a rapidly changing competitive landscape.

Report Highlights
The targeted therapy cancer brands market is rapidly expanding and is forecast to maintain a high growth rate over the forecast period. The market will reach a value of over $42 billion by 2017 in the seven major pharmaceutical markets, growing at a CAGR of 11%

Approvals in new tumor types with high unmet need, use in earlier treatment settings and growing physician familiarity are among the factors likely to drive sales of the best performing targeted therapy brands. However, pharmacoeconomic pressures and the launch of generic and pipeline competitors will dampen the growth of certain brands

Monoclonal antibody targeted therapy cancer brands achieved higher sales than small molecule agents in 2007 and will remain the leading class over the forecast period. This is driven by the considerable success of the monoclonal antibody brands Avastin, Herceptin and Rituxan
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CHAPTER 1 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 3
Strategic scoping and focus 3
Datamonitor insight into the cytotoxic therapy cancer brands market 4
Related reports 5
Upcoming reports 5
CHAPTER 2 MARKET DEFINITION 19
Cytotoxic therapies by ATC class 20
L1A – Alkylating agents 20
L1B – Antimetabolites 20
L1C – Vinca alkaloids and other plant-derived products 20
L1D – Antineoplastic antibiotics 21
L1X2 – Platinum compounds 21
Report classification of cytotoxic therapies 21
Antimetabolites 21
Mitotic inhibitors 22
DNA-interactive agents 22
Topoisomerase poisons 22
Non-covalent DNA binding drugs 23
Covalent DNA binding drugs – Alkylating agents 23
CHAPTER 3 MARKET OVERVIEW AND FORECASTS 24
Seven major markets 24
Current market assessment 24
Sales by class 24
Sales by brand 25
Sales by country 30
Future market assessment 32
Sales by class 32
Sales by brand 35
Sales by country 42
Opportunities and threats 45
US 46
Current market assessment 46
Sales by class 46
Sales by brand 48
Future market assessment 49
Sales by class 49
Sales by brand 52
Japan 55
Current market assessment 55
Sales by class 55
Sales by brand 57
Future market assessment 58
Sales by class 58
Sales by brand 61
5EU 65
Current market assessment 65
Sales by class 65
Sales by brand 67
Future market assessment 68
Sales by class 68
Sales by brand 71
France 74
Current market assessment 74
Sales by class 74
Sales by brand 76
Future market assessment 77
Sales by class 77
Sales by brand 80
Germany 84
Current market assessment 84
Sales by class 84
Sales by brand 86
Future market assessment 87
Sales by class 87
Sales by brand 90
Italy 94
Current market assessment 94
Sales by class 94
Sales by brand 96
Future market assessment 97
Sales by class 97
Sales by brand 100
Spain 104
Current market assessment 104
Sales by class 104
Sales by brand 106
Future market assessment 107
Sales by class 107
Sales by brand 110
UK 114
Current market assessment 114
Sales by class 114
Sales by brand 116
Future market assessment 117
Sales by class 117
Sales by brand 120
Rest of World snapshot 124
Current market assessment 124
Global cytotoxics market 124
Global antimetabolites market 126
Global mitotic inhibitors market 128
Global DNA-interactive agents market 130
CHAPTER 4 BRAND DYNAMICS 132
Brand analysis by class 132
Mitotic inhibitor brands are the smallest class, representing 16% cytotoxic therapies 132
Brand analysis by indication 133
Taxotere and TS-1 are the leading cytotoxic therapy cancer brands in terms of number of approved indications 133
Breast cancer is the indication with the most approved cytotoxic therapy cancer brands 138
Brand analysis by company 140
Sanofi-Aventis has the highest number of cytotoxic therapy cancer brands, although patent expiries are looming 140
Sanofi-Aventis 142
Taiho 142
Johnson & Johnson 142
Brand analysis by event 143
Abraxane will experience the greatest number of forecast events across the seven major markets 143
Brand analysis by sales growth 145
All cytotoxic drug classes show positive sales growth to 2017 145
Sales growth of antimetabolite brands 147
Sales growth of DNA-interactive agent brands 149
Sales growth of mitotic inhibitor brands 151
Brand versus generic market snapshot 153
Seven major markets 153
Generics – higher volume, lower value; Brands – lower volume, higher value 153
US 154
Japan 155
5EU 156
France 157
Germany 158
Italy 159
Spain 160
UK 161
CHAPTER 5 BRAND PROFILES AND FORECASTS 162
Abraxane 162
Brand profile 162
Brand forecast events 164
Brand forecast to 2017 165
Next generation taxane set to enter the EU markets 165
Alimta 167
Brand profile 167
Brand forecast events 168
Brand forecast to 2017 169
Line extensions and horizontal expansion will boost Alimta’s sales over the forecast period 169
Arranon 171
Brand profile 171
Brand forecast events 173
Brand forecast to 2017 174
Calsed 175
Brand profile 175
Brand forecast events 176
Brand forecast to 2017 177
Camptosar 178
Brand profile 178
Brand forecast events 179
Brand forecast to 2017 180
Increased generic competition decreases sales across the seven major markets 180
Clolar/Evoltra 181
Brand profile 181
Brand forecast events 182
Brand forecast to 2017 183
Dacogen 184
Brand profile 184
Brand forecast events 185
Brand forecast to 2017 186
Anticipated high uptake set to make Dacogen a leading cytotoxic therapy cancer brand 186
Doxil 188
Brand profile 188
Brand forecast events 189
Brand forecast to 2017 190
Ellence 191
Brand profile 191
Brand forecast events 192
Brand forecast to 2017 192
Eloxatin 193
Brand profile 193
Brand forecast events 194
Brand forecast to 2017 195
Top-seller likely to face strong generic competition 195
Furtulon 197
Brand profile 197
Brand forecast events 198
Brand forecast to 2017 198
Gemzar 199
Brand profile 199
Brand forecast events 200
Brand forecast to 2017 201
Blockbuster sales set to be dented by generic entry 201
Gliadel 203
Brand profile 203
Brand forecast events 204
Brand forecast to 2017 205
Hycamtin 206
Brand profile 206
Brand forecast events 207
Brand forecast to 2017 208
Ixempra 209
Brand profile 209
Brand forecast events 210
Brand forecast to 2017 211
Launch in big indication presents opportunity for novel mitotic inhibitor 211
Taxol 212
Brand profile 212
Brand forecast events 213
Brand forecast to 2017 213
Taxotere 214
Brand profile 214
Brand forecast events 215
Brand forecast to 2017 216
Approval in new indications and extensive use in major tumor types means blockbuster status will be maintained 216
Temodar 218
Brand profile 218
Brand forecast events 219
Brand forecast to 2017 220
Tomudex 221
Brand profile 221
Brand forecast events 222
Brand forecast to 2017 222
Treanda 223
Brand profile 223
Brand forecast events 224
Brand forecast to 2017 225
TS-1 226
Brand profile 226
Brand forecast events 227
Brand forecast to 2017 228
UFT 229
Brand profile 229
Brand forecast events 230
Brand forecast to 2017 230
Vidaza 231
Brand profile 231
Brand forecast events 232
Brand forecast to 2017 233
Entry into new markets will help boost sales to blockbuster status 233
Xeloda 235
Brand profile 235
Brand forecast events 236
Brand forecast to 2017 237
New indications and line extensions will ensure increasing sales 237
Yondelis 239
Brand profile 239
Brand forecast events 240
Brand forecast to 2017 241
APPENDIX A – MARKET ASSUMPTIONS 242
Country-specific assumptions and events 242
Effect of Medicare Modernization Act in the US 242
Biennial price cuts in Japan 242
Generic erosion assumptions 242
Data definitions, limitations and assumptions 243
Standard units 243
Japanese market data 243
Derivation of sales forecasts and pricing trends 243
Forecasts 244
Forecast methodology 244
APPENDIX B 245
Bibliography 245
Journals 245
Websites 245
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S 262
Abbreviations 268
Report methodology 270
About Datamonitor 270
About Datamonitor Healthcare 270
Disclaimer 272
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