F. Hoffmann-La Roche Ltd.: PharmaVitae Profile

This analysis examines the historical and forecast performance for Roche in the prescription pharmaceutical sector. The profile encompasses global company strategy, portfolio and pipeline analysis and assessment of financial performance, with 1-6 year sales forecasts for key drugs. An interactive forecasting and analysis tool provides continually updated quantitative and qualitative information.

Report Highlights

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CHAPTER 1 ABOUT THIS PROFILE 2
Executive summary 2
Quarterly news update 3
Company introduction 3
Company sales 3
Company financials 3
Key products and competitors 3
Data sourcing 3
Sales data 3
Analyst consensus 4
CHAPTER 2 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 5
Key findings 5
Prescription pharmaceutical sales performance, 2001-13 6
Financial performance, 2001-13 7
Roche: PharmaVitae forecasts at a glance 8
Strategic insight 9
A defining moment - Roche's merger with Genentech 9
MabThera/Rituxan, Herceptin and Avastin 9
First to market, rapid establishment as gold standard therapy 11
Horizontal market expansion drives growth 11
Rapid accumulation of oncology market share 12
High barrier to entry for competitors 12
Key strategic shift versus Big Pharma peers 13
Molecule type 14
Therapy area 15
Geography 16
Launch/Core/Expiry configuration 18
Could compulsory licensing pre-empt the biosimilar threat? 20
What next for Roche? 21
Pharmaceuticals + diagnostics = personalized medicine? 22
A return to the small molecule market? 23
RNAi - the next Genentech? 24
SWOT analysis 25
Strengths 25
Weaknesses 27
Opportunities 27
Threats 28
CHAPTER 3 QUARTERLY NEWS UPDATE 33
Product developments 33
Deals and alliances 34
Product deals 34
Technology deals 35
M&A activity 37
Company announcements 39
Future product milestones 45
CHAPTER 4 COMPANY INTRODUCTION 48
Key findings 48
Background 49
Key corporate developments 49
Pharmaceuticals division 49
Genentech 49
Chugai 50
Diagnostics division 50
Divestments 52
M&A history 53
M&A strategy 53
Genentech 53
Overview 53
'Locking in' mAb expertise 55
Product licensing agreement 55
US sales consolidation 56
Genentech's independence maintained 56
Move to acquire remaining shares in Genentech 57
Chugai 57
Japanese position strengthened 58
Non-integrative merger 58
Boost to Chugai pipeline... 58
...and a boost to Roche's pipeline 59
Large-scale M&A 59
Recent small-scale M&A 60
454 Life Sciences 60
Therapeutic Human Polyclonals (THP) 60
BioVeris 60
NimbleGen 61
Alnylam 61
Mirus Bio Corporation 61
ARIUS 61
Current corporate structure 62
'Twin-pillared' structure 63
Pharmaceuticals and diagnostics 63
Pharmaceutical division 64
Roche's pharma diversification strategy 65
Therapeutic diversification 65
Technology diversification 66
Geographic diversification 66
Risks to Roche's corporate strategy 67
CHAPTER 5 COMPANY SALES 68
Key findings 68
Prescription pharmaceutical sales and growth rate analysis, 2001-13 69
Product analysis 71
Product analysis, 2001-07 71
Product analysis, 2007-13 75
Therapy area analysis 79
Therapy area analysis, 2001-07 80
Therapy area analysis, 2007-13 84
Therapy area focus, 2001-13 87
Geographic analysis 89
Geographic analysis, 2001-07 90
Geographic analysis, 2007-13 92
Geographic focus, 2001-13 94
Launch/core/expiry analysis 95
Explanation of launch/core/expiry analysis 95
Launch analysis, 2007-13 96
Core analysis, 2007-13 98
Expiry analysis, 2007-13 100
Launch/core/expiry configuration, 2007-13 101
Molecule type analysis 104
Molecule type analysis, 2001-07 105
Molecule type analysis, 2007-13 106
Externalization analysis 109
Externalization analysis, 2001-07 110
Externalization analysis, 2007-13 112
CHAPTER 6 COMPANY FINANCIALS 115
Key findings 115
Reconciliation between PharmaVitae-formatted prescription pharma sales and company-reported total sales, 2001-07 117
Financial statements, 2001-07 119
Profit and loss account, 2001-07 119
Balance sheet, 2001-07 122
Operating costs and profit analysis 124
Operating costs and profit analysis, 2001-07 125
Operating cost ratio and profit margin analysis, 2001-07 127
Operating cost ratio and profit margin analysis, 2007-13 128
Operating costs and profit analysis, 2007-13 130
Return on capital employed analysis 131
Capital employed analysis, 2001-07 132
Return on capital employed (RoCE) analysis, 2001-07 134
Market capitalization analysis 136
Market capitalization analysis, 2001-07 136
Total shareholder returns analysis, 2001-07 138
CHAPTER 7 KEY PRODUCTS AND COMPETITORS 140
Key findings 140
Overview 141
Oncology 142
Avastin 142
Overview 143
Sales forecast 144
Herceptin 147
Overview 148
Sales forecast 149
MabThera/Rituxan 152
Overview 153
Sales forecast 154
Tarceva 157
Overview 158
Sales forecast 159
Inflammation and Immunology 161
CellCept 161
Overview 162
Sales forecast 163
Actemra 166
Overview 167
Sales forecast 168
Infectious diseases 171
Tamiflu 171
Overview 172
Sales forecast 173
Pegasys 175
Overview 176
Sales forecast 177
Hematology 179
Mircera 179
Overview 180
Sales forecast 181
NeoRecormon 184
Overview 185
Sales forecast 186
CHAPTER 8 APPENDIX 188
R&D pipeline 188
Abbreviations 191
Exchange rates 193
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Table 1: Roche - PharmaVitae forecasts at a glance 8
Table 2: Roche key product developments, Q1 & Q2 2008 33
Table 3: Roche product deals and alliances, Q1 2008 34
Table 4: Roche technology deals and alliances, Q1 2008 35
Table 5: Roche M&A activity, Q1 2008 37
Table 6: Roche company announcements, Q1 2008 39
Table 7: Roche future product milestones, 2008-10 45
Table 8: Roche product portfolio overview ($m), 2001-07 71
Table 9: Roche product portfolio overview ($m), 2007-13 75
Table 10: Roche therapy portfolio overview ($m), 2001-07 80
Table 11: Roche therapy portfolio overview ($m), 2007-13 84
Table 12: Roche portfolio overview by geographic region ($m), 2001-07 90
Table 13: Roche portfolio overview by geographic region ($m), 2007-13 92
Table 14: Roche launch portfolio overview ($m), 2007-13 96
Table 15: Roche core portfolio overview ($m), 2007-13 98
Table 16: Roche expiry portfolio overview ($m), 2007-13 100
Table 17: Roche portfolio overview by molecule type ($m), 2001-07 105
Table 18: Roche product portfolio overview by molecule type ($m), 2007-13 106
Table 19: Roche product portfolio overview by source ($m), 2001-07 110
Table 20: Roche product portfolio overview by source ($m), 2007-13 112
Table 21: Total Roche sales by business unit ($m), 2001-07 117
Table 22: Roche profit and loss account ($m), 2001-07 119
Table 23: Roche balance sheet ($m), 2001-07 122
Table 24: Roche operating revenue/cost analysis ($m), 2001-07 125
Table 25: Roche operating cost ratio analysis (% of total revenues), 2001-07 127
Table 26: Roche operating cost ratio analysis (% of total revenues), 2007-13 128
Table 27: Roche operating revenue/cost analysis ($m), 2007-13 130
Table 28: Roche capital employed ($m), 2001-07 132
Table 29: Roche EBIT return on capital employed ($m), 2001-07 134
Table 30: Roche EBIT pre-tax return/Capital employed driver analysis (%), 2001-07 135
Table 31: Roche market capitalization ($ billion), 2001-07 136
Table 32: Roche total shareholder returns (annual %), 2001-07 138
Table 33: Roche Key products overview 141
Table 34: Avastin: overview 143
Table 35: Avastin: sales forecast ($m), 2007-13 144
Table 36: Herceptin: overview 148
Table 37: Herceptin: sales forecast ($m), 2007-13 149
Table 38: MabThera/Rituxan: overview 153
Table 39: MabThera/Rituxan: sales forecast ($m), 2007-13 154
Table 40: Tarceva: overview 158
Table 41: Tarceva: sales forecast ($m), 2007-13 159
Table 42: CellCept: overview 162
Table 43: CellCept: sales forecast ($m), 2007-13 163
Table 44: Actemra: overview 167
Table 45: Actemra: sales forecast ($m), 2007-13 168
Table 46: Tamiflu: overview 172
Table 47: Tamiflu: sales forecast ($m), 2007-13 173
Table 48: Pegasys: overview 176
Table 49: Pegasys: sales forecast ($m), 2007-13 177
Table 50: Mircera: overview 180
Table 51: Mircera: sales forecast ($m), 2007-13 181
Table 52: NeoRecormon: overview 185
Table 53: NeoRecormon: sales forecast ($m), 2007-13 186
Table 54: Roche's R&D pipeline (Phase I-registration) 188
Table 55: Exchange rates, 2007 193
Figure 1: Roche prescription pharmaceutical performance, sales ($m) and growth rate (%), 2001-13 6
Figure 2: Roche's financial performance ($m), 2001-13 7
Figure 3: Sales contribution from oncology mAb (MabThera/Rituxan, Herceptin and Avastin) portfolio ($m), 2001-13 10
Figure 4: Dominance of the oncology mAb segment by Avastin, Rituxan and Herceptin 13
Figure 5: Roche growth drivers and resistors by molecule type ($m), 2007-13 15
Figure 6: Percentage of total prescription pharmaceutical sales growth by molecule type and geography, 2007-13 17
Figure 7: Roche launch/core/expiry configuration ($m), 2007-13 18
Figure 8: Roche SWOT analysis 25
Figure 9: M&A/divestment history 53
Figure 10: Current corporate structure 62
Figure 11: Roche prescription pharmaceutical performance, sales ($m) and growth rate (%), 2001-13 69
Figure 12: Roche key sales growth driver & resistors ($m), 2001-07 73
Figure 13: Roche key sales growth drivers & resistors ($m), 2007-13 76
Figure 14: Roche prescription pharmaceutical sales by therapy area ($m), 2001-13 79
Figure 15: Roche prescription pharma sales by therapy area (% of total), 2001-13 87
Figure 16: Roche prescription pharmaceutical sales by geographic region ($m), 2001-13 89
Figure 17: Roche growth drivers and resistors by geographic region ($m), 2001-07 90
Figure 18: Roche drivers and resistors by geographic region ($m), 2007-13 92
Figure 19: Roche prescription pharmaceutical sales by geographic region (% of total), 2001-13 94
Figure 20: Roche launch/core/expiry configuration ($m), 2007-13 101
Figure 21: Roche prescription pharmaceutical sales by molecule type ($m), 2001-13 104
Figure 22: Roche growth drivers and resistors by molecule type ($m), 2007-13 108
Figure 23: Roche prescription pharmaceutical sales by source ($m), 2001-13 109
Figure 24: Roche growth drivers and resistors by source ($m), 2001-07 110
Figure 25: Roche growth drivers and resistors by source ($m), 2007-13 114
Figure 26: Roche operating revenue/cost analysis ($m), 2001-13 124
Figure 27: Roche operating cost ratio analysis (% of total revenues), 2001-13 129
Figure 28: Roche return on capital employed, EBIT margin and capital turnover, 2001-07 131
Figure 29: Return on capital employed formula 135
Figure 30: Roche market capitalization ($ billion), 2001-07 137
Figure 31: Roche total shareholder returns vs. S&P 500 ($m), 2001-07 139
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