Prospects for a New Nuclear Renaissance in Europe

Introduction

In Europe, times of record economic growth, cheap oil and excess energy supplies are over. Instead, the energy landscape is one of declining power supplies and high, volatile fossil fuel prices. These factors - coupled with increasing energy demand, concerns over climate change, energy import dependency and security of supply - are coinciding to make the case for nuclear build much stronger.

Scope

*A review and evaluation of the drivers that are fuelling an increasingly probable nuclear renaissance across European member states.

*Capacity margin and wind capacity forecasts plus historical power output data and total emission lifecycle data for the major generation technologies.

*EU power generation cost projections for the major technologies plus a side by side review of their key respective advantages and limitations.

*A detailed review of the nuclear energy landscape for every relevant European member state as well as 2030 nuclear capacity forecasts.

Highlights

On the road to 2020, Europe will grow overly dependant on gas. New nuclear generation capacity will be needed to offset ageing nuclear and diminishing coal and to address increasing energy import dependency. In the face of increasing environmental legislation, nuclear will also be able to leverage its strong green credentials.

In Europe, nuclear power generation is competitive and is expected to develop a greater economic advantage over fossil fuel technologies in the run up to 2030. Nuclear also presents many advantages over other types of power generation, which all have major downsides and often lack credibility as sources of clean long-term baseload power.

At present, 14 of Europe's 27 Member States rely heavily on nuclear power and that reliance is set to grow. By 2030, net additions of nuclear power capacity will be highest in the UK, but could be higher still in Germany, where the planned - albeit improbable - phasing out of nuclear power would result in a significant energy supply gap.

Reasons to Purchase

*Quickly determine the extent to which the different European member states' are directly dependant on nuclear power generation.

*Understand how energy import dependency, security of supply, and climate change are coinciding to make a strong case for a new nuclear renaissance.

*Benchmark European member states' likely involvement with new nuclear power generation in the run up to 2030.

Report Highlights
Highlights

On the road to 2020, Europe will grow overly dependant on gas. New nuclear generation capacity will be needed to offset ageing nuclear and diminishing coal and to address increasing energy import dependency. In the face of increasing environmental legislation, nuclear will also be able to leverage its strong green credentials.

In Europe, nuclear power generation is competitive and is expected to develop a greater economic advantage over fossil fuel technologies in the run up to 2030. Nuclear also presents many advantages over other types of power generation, which all have major downsides and often lack credibility as sources of clean long-term baseload power.

At present, 14 of Europe's 27 Member States rely heavily on nuclear power and that reliance is set to grow. By 2030, net additions of nuclear power capacity will be highest in the UK, but could be higher still in Germany, where the planned - albeit improbable - phasing out of nuclear power would result in a significant energy supply gap.
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DATAMONITOR VIEW 1
CATALYST 1
SUMMARY 1
METHODOLOGY 1
SOURCES 1
ANALYSIS 2
The drivers for new nuclear build have evolved and the prospects for a nuclear renaissance in Europe today are very strong 2
Five drivers are fueling an increasingly probable European nuclear renaissance 2
Having grown overly dependant on gas on the road to 2020, Europe's new nuclear will address the imbalance post 2020 3
Post 2020, nuclear will displace some of Europe's gas-fired generation only to find that it is unsuited to wind power generation 4
In Europe, new nuclear generation capacity will need to come online to offset ageing nuclear and diminishing coal 5
In the face of increasing environmental legislation, only nuclear power can truly offset increasing energy import dependency 6
Total lifecycle emissions from nuclear power generation are among the lowest of all of the power generation technologies 7
Nuclear power generation is competitive and presents many advantages over other types of power generation 8
EU electricity generation projections suggest that nuclear energy is cost competitive with fossil fuel generation 8
In Europe, nuclear is expected to develop a greater economic advantage over fossil fuel technologies in the run up to 2030 9
Most of the renewable alternatives to nuclear power have major downsides and lack credibility as sources of clean baseload power 10
Shifts in political, environmental and technical landscapes have drawn out the comparative advantages of nuclear power 11
To address the overlapping challenges of energy import dependency, security of supply and climate change, Europe will move towards greater levels of nuclear power generation 12
The French energy policy model has nuclear power at its core 12
In Germany, the planned-albeit improbable-phasing out of nuclear power would result in a significant energy supply gap 13
In the UK, all but one of the 19 reactors will be retired by 2023, with new generation plants not expected to come 14
UK energy policy has taken a clear and decisive step towards nuclear power generation 15
The Swedish government has overturned a near 30-year ban on nuclear plants 15
At present, 14 of Europe's 27 Member States rely heavily and directly on nuclear power generation 16
European reliance on nuclear is set to grow 17
By 2030, net additions of nuclear power generation capacity will be highest in the UK, but could be higher still in Germany 18
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List of Tables
List of Figures
Figure 1: Today's drivers for new nuclear build have evolved 2
Figure 2: In the next decade, only gas will fill the gap left by Europe's ageing, disenfranchised and environmentally challenged coal fleet 3
Figure 3: By the time new nuclear capacity comes on board in Europe, wind capacity is expected to have doubled or tripled 4
Figure 4: Capacity margins will not keep pace with future power demand unless significant new baseload capacity is built 5
Figure 5: In the past decade, EU fossil fuel output growth has offset nuclear power output contraction, but this trend is likely to reverse post 2020 6
Figure 6: In sharp contrast to fossil fuels, nuclear is a low-carbon energy source with a small environmental impact, like most renewables 7
Figure 7: The relative costs of generating electricity from coal, gas and nuclear plants vary considerably from one location to another 8
Figure 8: Nuclear will enjoy comparative economic benefits in countries with no direct access to low-cost fossil fuels that operate strong carbon penalties 9
Figure 9: Shifts in political, environmental and technical landscapes have drawn out the comparative advantages of nuclear power 11
Figure 10: From 2020, France will require 40 EPRs to fully replace its current capacity 12
Figure 11: If Germany proceeds with its nuclear phase-out policy, by 2020 it will need to import some 25,000MWe of electricity as baseload 13
Figure 12: Power reactors planned and proposed in the UK currently total in excess of 12GW 14
Figure 13: But, current grid connection agreements for future nuclear plants could deliver 19GW 14
Figure 14: At present, 14 of Europe's 27 Member States rely heavily and directly on nuclear power generation 16
Figure 15: European reliance on nuclear is set to grow 17
Figure 16: By 2030, net additions of nuclear power generation capacity will be highest in the UK, but could be higher still in Germany 18
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