Wyeth: PharmaVitae Profile

This analysis examines the historical and forecast performance for Wyeth in the prescription pharmaceutical sector. The profile encompasses global company strategy, portfolio and pipeline analysis and assessment of financial performance, with 1-6 year sales forecasts for key drugs. An interactive forecasting and analysis tool provides continually updated quantitative and qualitative information.

Report Highlights

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CHAPTER 1 ABOUT THIS PROFILE 2
Executive summary 2
Quarterly news update 2
Company introduction 2
Company sales 2
Company financials 2
Key products and competitors 3
Appendix 3
Data sourcing 3
Sales data 3
Analyst consensus 3
CHAPTER 2 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 4
Key findings 4
Prescription pharmaceutical sales performance, 2001-13 5
Financial performance, 2001-13 6
Bayer AG: PharmaVitae forecasts at a glance 8
Strategic insight 9
Evolution towards a greater Rx pharma focus 9
1) 2001-04: Rx pharma performance collapses due to Baycol withdrawal and Ciprobay sales decline 10
Blockbuster Baycol is withdrawn from the market 10
Blockbuster Ciprobay suffers genericization 10
2) 2004-07: Corporate restructuring 11
2004: Divestment of Lanxess AG 11
2006-07: Acquisition of Schering AG 11
2007: Divestment of MaterialScience subsidiaries 12
3) 2007-13: Bayer portfolio drives forecast sales growth and cost savings are implemented 12
Cost cutting initiatives to increase operating profit 12
Bayer's Rx portfolio drives growth 13
A new era for Bayer Schering Pharma 14
SWOT analysis 16
Strengths 16
Weaknesses 17
Opportunities 19
Threats 21
CHAPTER 3 QUARTERLY NEWS UPDATE 25
Product developments 25
Deals and alliances 26
Product deals 26
Technology deals 26
M&A activity 27
Company announcements 28
Future product milestones 29
CHAPTER 4 COMPANY INTRODUCTION 30
Key findings 30
Company overview 31
Company history 31
Current corporate structure 32
Bayer HealthCare 33
Bayer MaterialScience 33
Bayer CropScience 33
M&A history 34
Acquisition of Roche Consumer Health AG (RCH) 34
Lanxess AG Spin-off 35
Divestment of US Plasma Products 35
Acquisition of Schering AG 36
Recent M&A promotes Bayer's healthcare focus 36
Divestment of Diagnostics Division 36
Divestment of HC Starck and Wolff Walsrode 37
Acquisition of Possis Medical and Sagmel Inc 37
M&A strategy 37
CHAPTER 5 COMPANY SALES ANALYSIS 39
Key findings 39
Prescription pharmaceutical sales and growth rate analysis, 2001-13 40
Product analysis 43
Product analysis, 2001-07 43
Product analysis, 2007-13 46
Therapy area analysis 50
Therapy area analysis, 2001-07 51
Therapy area analysis, 2007-13 54
Therapy area focus, 2001-13 57
Geographic analysis 59
Geographic analysis, 2001-07 60
Geographic analysis, 2007-13 62
Geographic focus, 2001-13 64
Launch/core/expiry analysis 66
Explanation of launch/core/expiry analysis 66
Launch analysis, 2007-13 67
Core analysis, 2007-13 69
Expiry analysis, 2007-13 71
Launch/core/expiry configuration, 2007-13 74
Molecule type analysis 76
Molecule type analysis, 2001-07 77
Molecule type analysis, 2007-13 79
Externalization analysis 82
Externalization analysis, 2001-07 83
Externalization analysis, 2007-13 85
CHAPTER 6 COMPANY FINANCIALS 88
Key findings 88
Reconciliation between PharmaVitae-formatted prescription pharma revenue and Bayer AG-reported total revenue, 2001-07 89
Financial statements, 2001-07 91
Profit and loss account, 2001-07 91
Balance sheet, 2001-07 94
Operating costs and profit analysis 96
Operating costs and profit analysis, 2001-07 97
Operating cost ratio and profit margin analysis, 2001-07 100
Operating cost ratio and profit margin analysis, 2007-13 102
Operating cost ratio and profit margin analysis, 2001-13 104
Operating costs and profit analysis, 2007-13 106
Return on capital employed analysis 108
Capital employed analysis, 2001-07 109
Return on capital employed (RoCE) analysis, 2001-07 111
Market capitalization analysis 115
Market capitalization analysis, 2001-07 115
Total shareholder returns (TSR) analysis, 2001-07 117
CHAPTER 7 KEY PRODUCTS AND COMPETITORS 119
Key findings 119
Overview 120
Hematology 121
Kogenate 121
Overview 121
Sales forecast 122
PEGylated formulation set to drive sales from 2011 122
Delivery device is key contributor to growth of Kogenate franchise 123
Growth of hemophilia market will continue to drive Kogenate sales growth 123
Key competitors 123
Patent challenge 124
Xarelto 125
Overview 125
Sales forecast 126
A replacement for Warfarin? 126
Pradaxa expected to take first-to-market advantage 127
Positive Phase III trial data buoys sales hopes 127
Urology and gender-specific health 128
Mirena 128
Overview 128
Sales forecast 129
An alternative to sterilization 129
Launch in the Japanese market 129
Key competitors 130
Levitra 132
Overview 132
Sales forecast 133
Key competitors 133
PDE-5 safety concerns 134
Levitra licensing agreements 134
Yasmin 135
Overview 135
Sales forecast 136
Yasmin: a historical growth driver 136
Yasmin patent invalidated following challenge from Barr Pharmaceuticals 136
The impact of generics 137
Key competitors 138
Yaz 140
Overview 140
Sales forecast 141
The Impact of Yasmin's invalidated patent protection 141
New market launches 142
Key competitors 142
The switch from Yasmin to Yaz 143
Oncology 144
Nexavar 144
Overview 144
Sales forecast 145
Nexavar encounters strong competition in the RCC market 145
HCC market to offer better sales potential 146
Further indication broadening will boost sales growth 146
Leukine 148
Overview 148
Sales forecast 149
Ongoing development to expand Leukine's range of indications 149
Leukine sales limited to the competitive US market 149
Safety concerns 150
Central nervous system 151
Betaferon 151
Overview 151
Sales forecast 152
Betaferon: a success story despite initial challenges 152
Novartis agreement 153
Key competitors 153
The Tysabri withdrawal 154
Infectious disease 156
Avelox 156
Overview 156
Sales forecast 157
Antibiotics market encounters growing patient resistance 157
Key competitors 158
Avelox in a good position despite increasing genericization 158
Avelox patent challenge: generic moxifloxacin not expected by 2013 159
Ciprobay 160
Overview 160
Sales forecast 161
Rapid genericization in forecast period 161
A key historical growth driver 161
The problem of resistance 162
Life cycle management 162
Cardiovascular 163
Adalat 163
Overview 163
Sales forecast 164
Extended release formulation rejuvenates brand 164
The impact of genericization 165
Rise of the ARB class 165
Endocrinology and other metabolic disorders 167
Glucobay 167
Overview 167
Sales forecast 168
The poor performance of the AGI class 168
Key competitors 169
CHAPTER 8 APPENDIX 171
R&D pipeline 171
New molecular entity pipeline 171
Indication broadening pipeline 172
References 173
Abbreviations 173
Exchange rates 174
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Table 1: Wyeth - PharmaVitae forecasts at a glance 7
Table 2: Wyeth key product developments, Q1 2008 18
Table 3: Wyeth product deals and alliances, Q1 2008 19
Table 4: Wyeth technology deals and alliances, Q1 2008 20
Table 5: Wyeth M&A activity, Q1 2008 20
Table 6: Wyeth company announcements, Q1 2008 21
Table 7: Wyeth future product milestones, 2008-10 22
Table 8: Wyeth product portfolio overview ($m), 2001-07 32
Table 9: Wyeth product portfolio overview ($m), 2007-13 34
Table 10: Wyeth product portfolio overview ($m), 2001-07 37
Table 11: Wyeth product portfolio overview ($m), 2007-13 39
Table 12: Wyeth portfolio overview by geographic region ($m), 2001-07 43
Table 13: Wyeth portfolio overview by geographic region ($m), 2007-13 44
Table 14: Wyeth launch portfolio overview ($m), 2007-13 48
Table 15: Wyeth core portfolio overview ($m), 2007-13 49
Table 16: Wyeth expiry portfolio overview ($m), 2007-13 50
Table 17: Wyeth portfolio overview by molecule type ($m), 2001-07 54
Table 18: Wyeth product portfolio overview by molecule type ($m), 2007-13 55
Table 19: Wyeth product portfolio overview by source ($m), 2001-07 59
Table 20: Wyeth product portfolio overview by source ($m), 2007-13 60
Table 21: Total Wyeth sales by business unit ($m), 2001-07 63
Table 22: Wyeth profit and loss account ($m), 2001-07 65
Table 23: Wyeth balance sheet ($m), 2001-07 66
Table 24: Wyeth operating revenue/cost analysis ($m), 2001-07 69
Table 25: Wyeth operating cost ratio analysis (% of total revenues), 2001-07 70
Table 26: Wyeth operating cost ratio analysis (% of total revenues), 2007-13 71
Table 27: Wyeth operating revenue/cost analysis ($m), 2007-13 73
Table 28: Wyeth capital employed ($m), 2001-07 76
Table 29: Wyeth EBIT return on capital employed ($m), 2001-07 78
Table 30: Wyeth EBIT pre-tax return/Capital employed driver analysis (%), 2001-07 79
Table 31: Wyeth market capitalization ($ billion), 2001-07 81
Table 32: Wyeth total shareholder returns (annual %), 2001-07 82
Table 33: Key products overview 85
Table 34: bapineuzumab: overview 87
Table 35: bapineuzumab: sales forecast ($m), 2007-13 88
Table 36: Pristiq: overview 92
Table 37: Pristiq: sales forecast ($m), 2007-13 93
Table 38: Effexor: overview 97
Table 39: Effexor: sales forecast ($m), 2007-13 98
Table 40: Prevnar: overview 105
Table 41: Prevnar-13: overview 106
Table 42: Prevnar: sales forecast ($m), 2007-13 107
Table 43: Prevnar-13: sales forecast ($m), 2007-13 107
Table 44: Tygacil: overview 113
Table 45: Tygacil: sales forecast ($m), 2007-13 114
Table 46: Tazocin: overview 116
Table 47: Tazocin: sales forecast ($m), 2007-13 117
Table 48: Enbrel: overview 121
Table 49: Enbrel: sales forecast ($m), 2007-13 122
Table 50: Premarin: overview 127
Table 51: Premarin: sales forecast ($m), 2007-13 128
Table 52: Protonix: overview 134
Table 53: Protonix: sales forecast ($m), 2007-13 135
Table 54: Viviant/Aprela: overview 143
Table 55: Viviant/Aprela: sales forecast ($m), 2007-13 144
Table 56: Wyeth's R&D pipeline (Phase I-registration) 148
Figure 1: Wyeth prescription pharmaceutical performance, sales ($m) and growth rate (%), 2001-13 5
Figure 2: Wyeth's financial performance ($m), 2001-13 6
Figure 3: Blockbusters shape Wyeth's outlook and mask launch performance 9
Figure 4: Reducing S,G&A is key lever on raising operating profit margin 10
Figure 5: Wyeth SWOT analysis 11
Figure 6: Current corporate structure 26
Figure 7: Pharmaceuticals business unit structure 27
Figure 8: Wyeth prescription pharmaceutical performance, sales ($m) and growth rate (%), 2001-13 30
Figure 9: Wyeth key sales growth driver & resistors ($m), 2001-07 33
Figure 10: Wyeth key sales growth drivers & resistors ($m), 2007-13 35
Figure 11: Wyeth prescription pharmaceutical sales by therapy area ($m), 2001-13 36
Figure 12: Wyeth prescription pharma sales by therapy area (% of total), 2001-13 41
Figure 13: Wyeth prescription pharmaceutical sales by geographic region ($m), 2001-13 42
Figure 14: Wyeth growth drivers and resistors by geographic region ($m), 2001-07 43
Figure 15: Wyeth drivers and resistors by geographic region ($m), 2007-13 44
Figure 16: Wyeth prescription pharmaceutical sales by geographic region (% of total), 2001-13 46
Figure 17: Wyeth launch/core/expiry configuration ($m), 2007-13 51
Figure 18: Wyeth prescription pharmaceutical sales by molecule type ($m), 2001-13 53
Figure 19: Wyeth growth drivers and resistors by molecule type ($m), 2007-13 56
Figure 20: Wyeth prescription pharmaceutical sales by source ($m), 2001-13 58
Figure 21: Wyeth growth drivers and resistors by source ($m), 2001-07 59
Figure 22: Wyeth growth drivers and resistors by source ($m), 2007-13 61
Figure 23: Wyeth operating revenue/cost analysis ($m), 2001-13 68
Figure 24: Wyeth operating cost ratio analysis (% of total revenues), 2001-13 72
Figure 25: Wyeth return on capital employed, EBIT margin and capital turnover, 2001-07 75
Figure 26: Return on capital employed formula 79
Figure 27: Wyeth market capitalization ($ billion), 2001-07 82
Figure 28: Wyeth total shareholder returns vs. S&P 500 ($m), 2001-07 83
Figure 29: Prevnar and Prevnar-13 global sales ($m), 2007-13 108
Figure 30: Different scenarios: Protonix 140
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